Brady's promise weighs about seven pounds
Football Betting Lines
01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After what Tom Brady thought would be a private moment with owner Robert Kraft became public, the world is now aware that the New England Patriots quarterback vows to play better in Super Bowl XLVI.
Brady admitted on the congratulatory podium after New England's victory over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship that he "sucked" and later promised Kraft he would "play a lot better in two weeks." Brady immediately shifted credit to his team's defense in a 23-20 win that sent the Patriots to their fifth Super Bowl appearance since the turn of the century, as he barely did his part with 239 yards passing and a pair of interceptions and no touchdown throws.
"I'm always trying to play better. Every player on this team is trying to play better every week," Brady said. "I'm glad we won that game, glad we're sitting in this position now. I think a lot of guys played really well and that's what it is going to take again this week. I always have private conversations with Mr. Kraft, but they're supposed to be private. I guess they're not."
It's not a surprise Brady would critique his own play so harshly, but in reality he didn't play all that poorly. He may have missed a few open targets, but one of the two picks he threw came on an acrobatic tip drill by two Baltimore defensive backs.
It's easy how quickly some, including Brady, can forget how well he played in against Denver one week earlier in the Divisional Round. The future Hall of Famer and three-time Super Bowl champion carved up the Broncos to the tune of 363 yards while tying an NFL single-game playoff record with six touchdown passes.
A standard of excellence throughout his career, Brady then gathered his 16th all-time postseason win versus the Ravens and is now 16-5 overall in the tournament. His .762 winning percentage is the best in the postseason by a starting quarterback (minimum of 15 starts), slightly ahead of Terry Bradshaw (14-5, .737), and Brady's 16 playoff victories match Joe Montana for the most by a starting quarterback. Only Montana (45) and Brett Favre (44) have more postseason touchdown passes than Brady's 36.
Patriots receiver Deion Branch, the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX win against Philadelphia, has played with Brady for many years, and it's nothing new for him to hear his teammate firmly self-analyze his own performance.
"Tom's an up-front guy, straight-forward," said Branch. "Trust me, everyone made a lot of mistakes on the field [in the game] except for our defense. Defense and special teams did a great job. As far as offense, we didn't put our best outing on the football field [in the game], and I promise you the next time we step on the field it won't be the same thing. I promise you that."
That promise by Branch, and Brady's own pact with Kraft, can only come to fruition if the entire offense is on the same page for the Patriots' Super Bowl XLVI matchup with the New York Giants. And that starts with the quarterback.
The Patriots know they'll have their hands full on both sides of the ball against the G-men, and that Brady is getting no younger under center as well. Is the window of opportunity closing for the poster boy of the NFL? Not quite yet, but the chances of the Patriots churning out success are becoming limited by the years. Brady, who ended a three-game losing streak in the playoffs by beating Denver, was outplayed by Giants quarterback Eli Manning four years ago for the ultimate prize, the sterling silver trophy created by Tiffany & Co weighing in at seven pounds.
Brady and the Patriots will be out for a measure of revenge against the Giants, the franchise that ruined their quest for a perfect season in Super Bowl XLII and kept the three-time champion quarterback from becoming just the third signal-caller (along with Bradshaw and Montana) to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy four times in a career.
With a chance to rectify his only loss in a Super Bowl and further cement his legacy in the NFL, Brady will face a New York defensive line raging with talent in defensive ends Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora in Indianapolis. He passed for 266 yards and one touchdown, but was sacked five times (twice by Tuck) in the Pats' 17-14 loss to New York in the teams' first Super Bowl meeting.
But guess what, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez weren't even on the Patriots back then, and the pair has since become two of the most dynamic tight ends in the game today. Gronkowski hopes to play despite an ankle injury he sustained in the AFC Championship, and teaming up with Hernandez can only make it difficult for the Giants.
"We'll see how it goes with Rob and some of the other players that are getting treatment," Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said. "We'll just see how that is when we get back out on the field. We have a lot of tough players on our team. I think that everybody is going to do all they can to be ready physically and mentally -- but especially physically -- to try to compete in the game. We'll just see where all that takes us."
New York also defeated the Patriots, 24-20, in a Week 9 matchup during this regular season, with Brady finishing 28-of-49 for 342 yards with two touchdown passes and a pair of interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked twice. Gronkowski was around for that defeat and did his best, gaining 101 yards and a score on eight receptions. Wes Welker, perhaps Brady's favorite target, ran all over the field for 136 yards on nine catches that day.
Belichick knows Brady, who can claim his own wing in the Hall of Fame with another Super Bowl triumph, has the ability to take the Pats back to the top with an effort slightly better than his last, but is also aware that his quarterback can't do it alone even though Brady may beg to differ.
When all said and done, and the confetti is streaming from the rafters after the final whistle, Brady and the Patriots could be making some room on the shelf with the only other four-time Super Bowl champions: Pittsburgh (six titles), San Francisco (six), Dallas (five) and Green Bay (four). If promises go awry, however, the Giants will be the ones to join that list.
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NCAA Football Betting : USC's reward: Top spot in Top 25NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.
No. 1 always seems to fit USC.
Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.
Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.
Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.
"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."
Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.
"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."
The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.
"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."
Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.
"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"
USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.
"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."
While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.
As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.
But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.
Get the latest 2009 BCS Championship odds at MySportsbook.com.
The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.
The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.
The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.
No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.
Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.
Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.
The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.
South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.
The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.